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Last week, I discussed the pros
and cons of adding commodities to one's investment mix. In
short, the asset class has historically had a low correlation to
stocks and bonds, which means that over long time periods, it has
tended to do well when stock and bond markets are slumping. In
addition, unlike stocks and bonds, commodities often benefit from
inflation, which is why they are considered a "hedge" against
inflation. In other words, when the value of a dollar declines
it eats into the real return offered by stocks and bonds, but
because the prices of commodities actually rise during inflationary
periods, having a stake in commodities can offset the deleterious
effects of inflation in one's overall portfolio.
But all of these potential benefits come at a price--volatility. By
that we mean commodity prices can be a wild ride: The asset class
can put up stunning gains but can also take pretty dramatic nose
dives. Because gains and losses can be magnified, a little goes a
long way. We recommend that investors allocate no more than 5% to
10% of a diversified portfolio to commodities. And most important,
the full diversification benefits from commodities are achieved
when investors hold onto their small allocation for a long time--10
years or longer, depending on your time horizon. This means riding
out the highs and not pulling the plug during the lean times. It's
a lot easier said than done!
With that in mind, let's turn our focus to some of the ways
investors can invest in commodities.
The
Basic Features of Commodities Investments
Investing in
commodities is usually done through futures contracts, which are
traded on an exchange and guarantee the delivery of a certain
commodity at a predetermined price on a future date. These
contracts can be settled by delivering the physical commodity
itself, or they can be settled in cash, which means that there is a
cash payment between the buyer and seller in the amount of
profit or loss rather than the physical delivery of a commodity.
Because trading commodities futures can be a complex business and
requires sizable amounts of cash, individual investors have not
traditionally invested in commodities markets. In fact, unlike some
other traditional inflation hedges such as real estate investment
trusts, you are unlikely to find commodity futures in traditional
mutual funds.
But institutional investors have been onto the potential
diversification benefits that commodities offer for a while now,
and small investors are increasingly jumping on the bandwagon.
That's because there are more investments that give investors
direct exposure to commodities than ever before. Here are the
basics on how they work.
There are three ways these investments make money: Spot-price
movements, roll yield, and collateral income. The mechanics behind
how these elements work are very complex, but here's a brief
overview: A commodities investor benefits if there is an increase
in a commodity's spot price, which is the price one would pay to
buy the commodity in the market today. Investors can also benefit
from the roll yield. Roll yield adds to a fund's returns when the
commodity's futures price is lower than its current spot price, as
is often the case. As the futures contract approaches its delivery
date, the contract's value converges to the new spot price. It then
rolls over into a new contract with a lower futures price. So, the
investor picks up the yield between the lower futures price and the
higher spot price. Finally, investors benefit from collateral
income as well. The funds don't have to devote much money to buying
actual barrels of crude oil or bushels of wheat. They use some form
of a derivative contract, mainly structured notes (where the fund
agrees to exchange a set payment for the total return of the index
at a later date), to mimic the returns of the index. That only
requires a small amount of assets, so the funds have cash left over
to buy bonds. Those bonds can add incremental return.
Finally, before getting into the specific types of investments
available, it's important to understand the basic differences
between the two major benchmarks for commodities, the Dow Jones-AIG
Commodity Index (DJAIG) and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
(GSCI). That's because most of the commodity investments available
to retail investors track one or the other of these indexes. Both
indexes are diversified across a broad spectrum of commodities, but
the big difference between them boils down to energy. The GSCI has
a lot more energy exposure than the DJAIG. Both indexes attempt to
weight each individual commodity within the index proportionally
with the production of that commodity in the world economy. So, for
example, energy is currently a major player in both
indexes. However, in order to reduce volatility and keep a
single commodity or sector from dominating the index, the DJAIG
puts maximum and minimum thresholds (33% and 2%, respectively), on
related groups of commodities (for example, energy or precious
metals) while the GSCI does not; its energy weighting is
currently about 75%.
Mutual
Funds
For commodity exposure, one could go with one of
the open-end mutual funds in the space. Not only is the process of
buying a mutual fund simpler and more convenient than trading
futures, but commodities mutual funds offer exposure to a
diversified collection of commodities (many track either the DJAIG
or GSCI).
Among the few open-end mutual funds that invest in commodities,
we particularly like PIMCO
Commodity RealReturn PCRDX,
a fund that invests in derivative instruments that seek to
replicate the performance of the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index.
Because the fund can gain full exposure to the index with only a
portion of assets, the remaining assets are invested in Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). One detractor is this fund's
1.24% expense ratio, which we think is too high considering the
fund's $12 billion asset base.
But investors beware: These types of funds tend to pay out
their income in the form of capital gains to shareholders,
which can really take a bite at tax time. PIMCO Commodity
RealReturn currently has a 17.6% yield! The PIMCO fund pays most of
its distributions out in the form of ordinary income, which is
taxed at your personal income tax rate. For this reason, we would
recommend that investors hold them in a tax-advantaged account. (In
addition, it's worth noting that this yield fluctuates wildly
depending on how commodities have been performing. So, if you're
enticed by the current high yield, be aware that it is sure to
erode in periods when commodity prices are flat or negative.)
Exchange-Traded
Funds
Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, may appeal to
speculators trying to take advantage of the price swings in the
commodities market because shares trade on an exchange, just like a
stock. But ETFs are also useful for long-term investors because
they often have expense advantages over traditional mutual funds.
That said, if one is dollar-cost averaging into commodities--in
other words, building the position slowly with regular investments
over time--one has to be mindful of brokerage fees, as they could
eventually erode any expense advantage over a traditional mutual
fund.
The first commodity ETF, Deutsche Bank Commodity Index
DBC,
debuted on the American Stock Exchange in February 2006. While this
fund may have the first-mover advantage, at 0.95% it's not cheap to
own. Further, the index it tracks is not as diversified or robust
as the more widely followed DJAIG or even the GSCI. The index
the fund tracks, the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index, follows
only six commodities: sweet light crude, heating oil, aluminum,
gold, wheat, and corn. We think it leaves out some important
commodities, such as natural gas and cattle.
Last year, Barclays filed a proposal with the Securities and
Exchange Commission for iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust. If
this ETF makes its way to the marketplace, its 0.75% expense
ratio will provide some strong price competition for the
aforementioned funds. One thing to keep in mind here is the GSCI
index's huge weighting in energy-related commodities, which have
dominated the world economy over the past few years. If you want a
more diversified array of commodities, this isn't for you.
In addition, for the same reasons that traditional mutual funds
are not tax-efficient, ETFs aren't either. They are best held in a
tax-deferred account.
Exchange-Traded
Notes
If tax-friendliness is a major concern, you
might want to check into Barclays' new exchange-traded notes, or
ETNs, that link to either the GSCI (iPath GSCI Total Return Index
GSP) or
the DJAIG (iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return
DJP).
Basically, these funds are structured notes, which are really
just 30-year debt securities whose ending value is tied to the
total return of one of the indexes minus fees. At 0.75%, they are
reasonably priced, and they trade on the New York Stock Exchange,
so they are convenient to buy and sell. Investors are taking on
some credit risk because they are essentially buying a debt
instrument backed by Barclays Bank PNC, whose debt is rated AA.
What's more, the ETNs look like they are going to be far more
tax-friendly than conventional mutual funds or ETFs because they
don't make distributions. Instead, investors pay capital gains tax
depending on when they bought and when they sold.
Conclusion
There are more types of investments than ever before that allow
investors direct investment in commodities. And given the red-hot
performance of the commodities markets lately, it's likely that the
number of available products competing for shelf space will only
continue to increase. Of all the available options, we prefer
the PIMCO fund. Aside from the fact that it tracks a
well-diversified commodities index, it also adds value with its
TIPS. What's more, PIMCO has experience in the structured notes
market. That said, we think the ETNs are ones to watch,
primarily because of their tax-friendly nature and cheaper
expenses. Quite frankly, however, they haven't been out long
enough to judge, and we don't know enough about them to pound the
table for these securities. But we are keeping them on our watch
list.
In short, handle these red-hot assets with care. As we stated in
the first installment of this article, it's our strong bias that
investors will have a more rewarding experience if they pick a
sensible and reasonably priced fund in which to invest, and then
hold on for the long term--preferably in a tax-deferred account. On
top of that, dollar-cost averaging into the fund is a wise way to
buy in.
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