Every year we have a bunch of players who are considered top prospects who really should not be.

In my opinion, it should always be based on previous statistics and previous health rather than future potential. Every once in a while, a player lives up to expectations, but more often than not, the players that make it for the first time to the upper echelon have been moving that general direction for years or they surprise everyone.

Let’s take a look at Five Players who are likely to be taken in the top 3 rounds who you should avoid:

1. Elton Brand - He has been a fantastic player in the past, but his move to a new team AND his return from a serious injury has to stir up some concerns among Fantasy Owners. You really can’t take a chance that your first round pick won’t be fully recovered or won’t mesh well with the players on his new team. Better to nab Amare Stoudemire in the first round, or go for Bosh or Camby in the second round if you want a top center.
2. Dwyane Wade - Wade seems to make my list every year. People keep telling me that I’m wrong to avoid him. I’ve been right every year so far. He played fantastically for the Olympics, but the fact that he played significant minutes in the Olympics worries me. That and the fact that he played only 51 games last season should tell Fantasy Owners to consider another guard. Iverson and Billups are almost always fairly healthy, and they should be available somewhere in this range.
3. Baron Davis - He was healthy all last year (amazingly enough) and just in time to earn himself a large contract. (Coincidence?) Look for Baron to return to his injured ways as he joins the Hollywood entertainment scene. All things being equal, I’d rather go for Billups, Deron Williams, or Steve Nash if I wanted a point guard here. (Although Deron Williams extensive Olympic time might worry me a bit.)
4. Yao Ming - Another return to my list for a third year in a row, Yao Ming is again on this list. He is likely to sit out some more due to injury. I know what he brings, but since he’ll only bring it for 50-60 games, you’ll have to pass on him. I know! I know! An 82 game Yao Ming would be fantastic! He’s just not worth the risk in the second round when you have steadier big men like Carlos Boozer and Al Jefferson in the same range.
5. Andrew Bynum - He’s pegged as a late third round in many drafts, but don’t you dare consider drafting him there. His previous stats don’t come anywhere close to him being worth a third round pick (or even a fourth rounder). In addition, you should find his previous injuries troubling enough that you avoid picking him. Rasheed Wallace, Chris Kaman, or Mehmet Okur should be much better choices for fourth round big men (and one of those might even fall to you in the fifth round, if you’re lucky).

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Looking over the field, all I can say is get your assists early or pay the price.

The top players have really separated themselves in this category, and if you don’t get one of them you’ll have to really pay particular attention to nabbing second tier players that also get you a lot of statistics in other categories.

I don’t think I’d risk it, though. You have to go for one of the top 5 players if you hope to have a chance in assists.

1. Chris Paul - 925 - The only way Paul is not worth the #1 pick in the draft is if the Olympics take their toll and he can’t play at least 75 games. He is also among the league leaders in steals and points, so Paul will get his. Add to that some decent three point shooting, field goal percentage (for a point guard), and free throw percentage and you’ve got one heck of a pick. If you have the first pick in the draft, you have to pick Paul.
2. Deron Williams - 862 - Chris Paul and Deron Williams are 1 and 2 in the league at the point guard position, but Williams can be had in the second round, whereas Paul shouldn’t even fall to the second pick. I’ve pushed Williams above Steve Nash because Williams is on his way up and Nash is on his way down and has a new coach dictating the offense. Compared to Paul, Williams makes more field goals (50.7% vs 48.8%) and less free throws (80.3% vs 85.1%) and a much fewer amount of steals. The rebounds are about equal, but Williams also gets nearly 80 more turnovers per season.
3. Steve Nash - 898 - I’m not sure what this drops to this year, but he’s still one of the best point guards in the league, especially in the assist department. He’ll probably be available in the second round of your league.
4. Jason Kidd - 806 - Kidd’s field goal percentage is attrocious, but luckily it shouldn’t hurt you too much because he doesn’t take that many shots. His free throw percentage, three pointers, rebounds, and steals are all good (and the rebounds are especially good for a point guard). He’ll probably go in the third round, but probably won’t fall much lower than the early fourth round.
5. Jose Calderon - 678 - Calderon is no longer competing for time with T.J. Ford, so expect him to be in the 800s this year. He’s a third round pick in most leagues, but you wouldn’t be reaching too much to take him in the second round. His field goal percentage is stellar (51.9%) as is his free throw percentage (90.8%). Best of all his turnovers are very low (126) for this caliber of point guard, although more playing time will more likely mean a few more turnovers.

If you didn’t get one of the guys above, you will have to go for at least two of these in the second tier if you hope to compete in assists at all. Especially look for guys that will help you in other statistical categories or can be had in late rounds.

Tier 2

1. Baron Davis - 623 - It’s probably a safe bet that Davis won’t be getting 600 assists playing for the Clippers, even if he manages to stay healthy, which I doubt. Somewhere closer to 500 might be a better bet for him.
2. Allen Iverson - 586 - There is some doubt on whether he will play the full season for the Nuggets, so it’s hard to judge where Iverson might be in the assists category. He normally gets quite a few, though, and his points and steals are guaranteed to be high no matter where he goes.
3. Raymond Felton - 583 - There is some doubt on whether Felton will even start the whole year with a young rookie point guard breathing down his neck. If you are really struggling in assists you could take him with a ninth or tenth round pick, but hopefully you’ve already shored up your assists long before this point.
4. Andre Miller - 565 - A solid fifth or sixth rounder if you’re hurting for assists. The problem with Miller is that he doesn’t get you much else besides a fairly good amount of steals. Hopefully you aren’t still looking for assists in the fifth round.
5. LeBron James - 539 - You aren’t picking this guy up for his assists so much as for his all around game and, especially, his points. But his assists definitely put him up to the top of the second tier. Of course, you aren’t going to get him any lower than half way through the first round.
6. Chauncey Billups - 529 - Billups is always a solid second rounder, especially for his free throw percentage. I have won many a league with Chauncey on my team. He has a lower than normal amount of turnovers, too, so he doesn’t hurt you where other point guards often do.

If you haven’t gotten enough assists at this point, you are definitely in trouble. But for moving you up to the top in assists and getting you well positioned in other categories, here are a few more players whose assists should encourage you to consider them.

1. Joe Johnson - 474 A solid late third rounder, who is especially worth of consideration if he drops to the fourth round.
2. Kirk Hinrich - 452 - It’s hard to say how much playing time he will get in Chicago. Still, he might be a good player to pick for your bench on the off chance that he gets traded this season (as is rumored), or somebody ahead of him gets injured.
3. Kobe Bryant - 441 - Won’t last beyond pick 3. You’re picking him because he scored 2323 points last year.
4. Brandon Roy - 430 - He has a lot of young teammates to pass to in Portland these days. He’ll probably go in the fourth round, but that might be a little high to take him unless his stats improve a lot this year, which they very well might.
5. Mo Williams - 419 - He’ll be bringing the ball up and passing it to LBJ this year. Not sure how this affects his assists, but I’d count on them staying steady and not really improving drastically.