Elements of Tape
Reading
It's easy to learn
technical analysis because there are thousands of books on the
subject. But the art of tape-reading is a tougher task because it's
almost impossible to describe the subject matter in a simple
tutorial. As many old pros will tell you, the only real path to
skilled tape-reading is sitting down and watching the markets for a
decade or two.
I consider myself a much
better tape-reader than technical analyst. Anyone can flip through
the charts and pull up a handful of pretty patterns. However, it's
the flow of the ticker tape that determines the veracity of all
those bars and indicators. Indeed, tape-readers can trade without
charts, but it's a real pain in the neck the other way
around.
Tape-reading isn't
limited to the intraday markets. End-of-day traders benefit when
they study the intimate flow of price action. Candlesticks offer
the best tool for this close-up analysis because they display the
relative open, close, high and low for each session. Many times,
that's exactly what these traders need to know about buying and
selling pressure.
Be prepared to spend
years or decades building your tape-reading knowledge. The process
starts by memorizing key levels on the major indices, as well as
those on all the bread-and-butter stocks you're trading each day.
Then drop what you're doing and pay close attention to the order
flow when prices approach those pre-defined levels.
Tape-readers have a
major advantage over technical analysts when divergent signals
arise in the buy/sell flow. For example, the failure of a breakout
to attract buyers shows up earlier on the time and sales screen
than it does on intraday or daily charts. This warning signal lets
tape-readers take action well before the price patterns issue sell
signals.
Rendering years of
ticker observation into a few rules isn't easy, but I'm going to
try it anyway. Keep in mind that this outline offers just a glimpse
into the nature of tape-reading. In reality you need to embark on
this lonely task without anyone looking over your shoulder. But
it's worth the effort, because the trading edge you gain will last
a lifetime. Tape-Reading Guidelines
Here are 15 rules,
techniques and observations to improve your tape-reading
skills.
1. Traders spend a
fortune accessing market depth through Level II, Nasdaq's TotalView
service and NYSE OpenBook, but you can read the tape very well with
a simple display that shows only the last price and bid-ask spread.
This summary information resolves winners and losers at each
turn.
2. Level II tracks
short-term market pressures that don't predict the future,
regardless of all the hype attached to this stock quotation tool.
Most large buy and sell orders are hidden from this screen by
clever stock exchange and electronic communication network (ECN)
loopholes.
3. Forget about the
outside order flow and focus all of your attention on the inside
market. The time and sales ticker presents this information in a
simple linear format.
4. Here are two key
observations that guide all tape-readers. First, professionals move
markets in whatever direction yields the greatest volume. Second,
the most basic order flow manipulates price against crowd
emotions.
5. Many specialists and
market makers keep one eye on the charts and the other on
cross-market forces. They push prices through support and
resistance levels to test the waters and see how much greed or fear
they can generate with the public.
6. Filter the tape's
message through TICK (a short-term indicator that tracks bullish
and bearish activity in NYSE stocks throughout the day), market
breadth and the indices. Measure convergence-divergence between
indices and the tape's order flow. Time and sales on individual
stocks should pick up as they respond to index breakouts or
breakdowns.
7. A strong tape rings a
very loud bell in a weak market, and vice versa.
8. Greed and fear reveal
themselves through rapid bursts of activity on the ticker tape.
Look for nervous prints above the ask during breakouts and
desperate prints below the bid during breakdowns.
9. Most bid and ask
movement emits noise and doesn't predict price direction. But an
expanding bid-ask spread after a sharp move in either direction
signals an impending reversal, because it's cleaning out the last
stops.
10. When strength meets
weakness, look for price to break through the weak direction. Watch
for a standoff when both sides show similar commitment.
11. Battles can rage for
days at key price levels. Assume every level will break at least
once, to suck in more volume. Decide whether the bulls or bears
show more commitment by watching how they respond when levels
break. That should be the winning side.
12. The spread widens in
volatile markets, with price surging farther on fewer shares. Use
wide spreads to exit positions with limit orders well above the ask
or below the bid. This stretch mechanism provides a good part of
the dynamics your profits depend upon.
13. No two stocks trade
alike on the tape. Observe ticker movement and check out risk
characteristics before taking a position. Look for depth of
participation and which market players spend the most time at the
inside market.
14. The size of
available shares on the tape is a lie; the order flow tells the
truth. Watch closely to see how much volume actually executes at
each price level. This exposes hidden players who will eventually
move that stock's price.
15. Consider the fish
you're swimming with at the time. Most volume comes from scalpers
and computer programs that push price around for a few pennies.
Tape-readers spend most of their time searching for the whales
hiding under these minnows.
|
Notes by Piter:
It's easy to learn technical analysis because there are thousands of books on the subject. But the art of tape-reading is a tougher task because it's almost impossible to describe the subject matter in a simple tutorial.