Repetition of the now oh so tired news about the UK Housing
Market Crash. After reading countless stories, news articles,
blogs, comments and email campaigns about how generally unpleasant
things are right now, I thought it best to look at the bright side
of things.
The main reason for this was an article I found on the Times Online about...yes...the UK Housing
Market being close to Collapse! Yet another one to possible glance
over and read things I already know. Analysts describing the
current conditions as a "House of Cards" due to reckless mortgage
lending, fraud and the over-building of city centre flats etc etc
etc. Nothing new there at all. As I read on a little further there
were observations on action taken against two mortgage brokers for
falsely submitting information about clients in order to get a
mortgage. Also quoted in the article was an analyst from the
Financial Services Authority to advise shareholders in house
building companies to get their money out and "head for the exit"
due to the impending market being vulnerable to a crash.
Nothing really new here and it didn't make any new insights or
theories. Then something struck me, this wasn't retrospective at
all. In fact it read like a future warning. How can this be an
article worth publishing? For some reason, I didn't notice the
published date...February 2008! Before the real crash happened of
the summer and when everything really started to hit the fan. What
was also quite striking were the comments left by readers at the
time. One in particular saying, "A complete load of rubbish. What
does this analyst know about housing?" Clearly quite a lot and
clearly someone who had the foresight to warn people of what was to
come. There was the answer to everything right there, stop taking
such huge risks.
As every successful business owner will tell you, risk is what
makes you successful. Of course but is there such a thing as a
calculated risk? If people were warning of the impending crash and
the mortgage lenders continued on regardless then wasn't this
inevitable? What left me feeling most optimistic was that if enough
people can have the knowledge of how markets will behave and the
banks took heed of this then perhaps we would be able to maintain
the markets in the future? Sometimes we need to really lose
everything before we can see what we had in the first place. Where
some things are totally out of our control what we really should be
paying attention to is how to maintain markets in the light of
possible crash. As most of us are not professional gamblers, sorry
stockbrokers, and used to making such risky decisions then perhaps
we should be willing to take advice from the right people and be
more cautious with our money in the first place?
Here's a nice illustration of what things currently look like
for the market:
Image courtesy of www.marketoracle.co.uk
On the positive side, when things get so bad - the only way is
up. At least we will have the foresight and regulations in place
should there be a next time!
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UKHousing.com