First things first: If you plan on buying an Apple iPhone this June,
you better get in line in front of me, because I'll have $500 ready
to leave my hands the minute the first one's available. I couldn't
be more elated about the announcement and more appreciative of the
incredible development effort on Apple's part.
Several people have pinged me asking my thoughts about how much
the iPhone will change the mobile web landscape, seeing how I'm in
the midst of authoring a book on the subject.
My reply? Hardly at all. Here's my reasoning:
Content zooming isn't new. Don't get me wrong —
the UI features in "Safari Mini" (or whatever the new name) are no
doubt really cool, but the technology to see an entire web
page and zoom in/out — "adaptive zooming", "mini-map navigation",
what have you — has existed, to my knowledge, for some time now (at
least a year?). Additionally, Opera has been developing similar
technology for non-desktop browsers, notably of late in the version
for Nintendo Wii (video). I really
like the idea of viewing the exact same site on a mobile, but I
question how practical it is for every site. (Nor is the
idea of mobile widgets new, while we're at it.)
Data costs will continue to plague subscribers.
Take the NYTimes.com example shown in the keynote. We can probably
expect "Safari Mini" to compress images and code to reduce download
size much like other mobile user agents, but at the current NYTimes
document size of +500 KB you could potentially pay
$5.00 just to download the home page
once, if paying per KB for data access. I'm
currently subscribed to data plans on two different providers
(Sprint, Cingular). One has unlimited, the other a 5 MB/mo cap. I
surf endlessly on the unlimited plan, but I'm very cautious about
web content on the other. Granted, iPhone owners will likely be
unlimited plan subscribers, but still. (For the record, let it be
said I expect unlimited data plan growth/affordability to continue
to increase the next few years.)
Context is still king. At the end of the day,
the iPhone is a device built for mobility. And with mobility, there
are limitations and opportunities that should be
addressed, both of which are roughly the same for iPhone as that of
nearly any mobile device. Consider the Google Maps app, for
example. Firstly, Google Maps Mobile has been widely available on a
variety of devices for some time now. Secondly, if iPhone isn't
GPS-enabled, that is to say it can tell where I'm at rather than
typing in my location, it doesn't radically alter the existing
experience anyway. The UI is slick for sure, but beyond that I'm
still at the mercy of text entry.
iPhone owners won't be the typical mobile web
user. If the mobile web is to become anything more than
rich internet access for elite phone subscribers, we must look
beyond Blackberrys, Treos and yes, iPhone. Currently India is
outpacing all other countries in mobile subscriptions growth
(source),
but don't expect them to be iPhone owners anytime soon — or owners
of devices with similar capabilities, speaking in terms of a
subscriber majority.
All this aside, while the iPhone won't
revolutionize the mobile industry as a whole
anytime soon, it will revolutionize the
individual mobile web experience, and come June
that's about all that will matter for me.